GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair was also traded inside the horizontal channel on Thursday. In the case of the pound, this horizontal channel is not obvious, since we did not begin to draw new, additional levels, however, it is clearly visible that the pair continues to move sideways. All the macroeconomic statistics of the day made an impression on traders. When the British statistics were published, and then the US ones, the market did not even really understand what to do with the pound/dollar pair, but simply began to trade in all directions. As a result, we got another day of flat and illogical movements, and it doesn't even make much sense to consider statistics, since it did not affect the general state of affairs in any way. As a result, the pair remains flat or "swings", and the lines of the Ichimoku indicator have almost merged with each other, which also signals a sideways movement. Is it worth saying once again that Ichimoku lines are weak in flat, and it is very difficult to trade?

There were only two trading signals on Thursday. What does the second one have to do with it, that it is even difficult to immediately understand what exactly happened in the area of 1.2259 - Senkou Span B - Kijun-sen. But first things first. At first, the price just bounced off the level of 1.2259 in perfect accuracy and after that it went down 78 points. This deal definitely had to be closed manually, since there were 150 points to the nearest level, and it is still difficult to count on such volatility every day. Thus, it was possible to exit the deal, for example, by consolidating the price above the moving average. Further, the price rebounded from the above area and went down 25 points. This was enough to at least set Stop Loss to breakeven. Also, this signal could not be worked out at all, since it was very inaccurate.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed insignificant changes. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 5,200 long positions and 10,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 5,300. However, the mood of major players still remains "pronounced bearish". And the pound, despite the growth of the net position, still continues to fall. The net position has been falling for three months, which is perfectly visualized by the green line of the first indicator in the chart above or the histogram of the second indicator. Therefore, two or three insignificant increases in this indicator hardly unequivocally indicate the end of the downward trend for the pound. The non-commercial group has a total of 95,000 short positions open and only 29,000 long positions. As you can see, the difference between these numbers is more than three times. We note that in the case of the pound, the COT report data very accurately reflects what is happening in the market: the mood of traders is "very bearish", and the pound has been falling against the US dollar for a long time. In the past few weeks, the pound has been trying to show growth, but even in the chart for this paragraph (daily timeframe), these attempts look pathetic. Since in the case of the pound, the COT report data reflects the real picture of things, we note that a strong divergence of the red and green lines of the first indicator often means the end of the trend. Therefore, formally now we can count on a new upward trend. However, weak geopolitical, fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds for European currencies still put pressure on them.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 24. The "swing" continues, Powell was not surprised.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 24. Where is the pound? Has anyone seen the pound?

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on June 24. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

GBP/USD 1H

The flat is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. The Ichimoku indicator lines are very close to each other, which means they are very weak. Thus, everyone decides for themselves whether to trade or not to trade the pair at this time, but we warn that the trading situation for both major pairs is now extremely unfavorable. We highlight the following important levels for Friday: 1.1932, 1.2106, 1.2259, 1.2342, 1.2429, 1.2458, 1.2589. Senkou Span B (1.2265) and Kijun-sen (1.2249) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. Only one publication each is scheduled for Friday in the US and the UK. In the US it is the indicator of consumer sentiment, and in the UK it is retail sales. Both of these reports are equally likely to affect the pair's movement, which is in a flat.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.